Simon Ward - Money Moves Markets - Comments

Tim comments on Will UK house prices continue to recover?

Tim — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 10:36:58 +0000

Firstly - thank you for your analysis of UK house prices. However it raises questions for me:
Like a lot of others, most of my net worth is vested in the family home. For the first time in 30 years, I find myself genuinely worried about this.
It seems to me that the price of UK property is set for a more or less continuous decline over the next 10 years - maybe more.
My reasons for saying this are partly from a view of the fundamentals, but also partially from a technical view of the charts (which latter doesn't yet show a good swing-low, but even if it did, there is insufficient activity to push it higher - so I see this as a dead-cat bounce). I keep telling myself I am wrong about this (mostly so I feel better about it), but have nevertheless put my house on the market. I hedged the currently reduced value (down 22%) by an acquiring a planning gain (as I have owned the property for 10 years).
Somewhat counter-intuitively, my rather depressing view of the UK property market suggested to me that argicultural land should be increasing in value. I checked this and it seems that it is - hence my pessimistic view is further hardened. When I add in the probability of an energy crisis within 10 years, I suspect my retirement strategy should be to down-size my home, make it self-sufficient in energy and water, buy managed farms for income and gold until it peaks. Would you agree with my (20 yr) view?

lee mcvey comments on RPI inflation to rebound sharply in 2010

lee mcvey — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 20:51:08 +0000

The fiscal stimulas package used by the government to boost consumer spending has caused the RPI to rise erratically and falsely, which is a short term way for the government to demonstrate a recovery in the economy but long term will devalue the strenghth of the pound. But Labour are only interested in short term gains so they can win the election in May. The UK is heading for a massive fall, if the Tories gain power Labour will blame it all on them and return to power in 4 years, when recovery will be more likely after the Tories have weathered and rode the storm!

Jan Luthman comments on What rebalancing?

Jan Luthman — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 12:00:02 +0000

"Households may have been influenced by the dovish forecasts in the latest Inflation Report"

Errrmmm - no. A few fund managers may have been influenced, but, in the real world of whitevanman and OK magazine, households do NOT study BoE Inflation Reports. Sorry.

Simon Ward comments on UK inflation rise due to VAT but medium-term overshoot suggests policy failure

Simon Ward — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 15:52:58 +0000

Thanks Jeremy - a better explanation than I managed.

Jeremy Dufton comments on UK inflation rise due to VAT but medium-term overshoot suggests policy failure

Jeremy Dufton — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 15:40:58 +0000

At the risk of being accused of being really sad or really pedantic, I suspect the rounding anomaly you speak of arises because each individual monthly index level is rounded but the published annual changes are based on the unrounded indices. If, say, 108.7 was actually 108.66 and 112.4 was actually 112.44 then the annual rate would be 3.47%. Or 3.5%.
Love the blogs, Simon, very insightful, please keep them coming.

Simon Ward comments on UK inflation overshoot tempered by food / gas prices

Simon Ward — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 15:14:51 +0000

The change is too small to have much effect. Update: January CPI inflation was 3.5% rather than 3.2% because food prices unexpectedly accelerated, although this may be temporary.

Mark Davies comments on UK inflation overshoot tempered by food / gas prices

Mark Davies — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 20:49:40 +0000

Simon, How will this affect your earlier General Election prediction ?

C Worthy comments on RPI inflation to rebound sharply in 2010

C Worthy — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 23:16:26 +0000

I see little chance of inflation peaking at 3.5% later in 2010. With China wizzing away and using its power to buy raw materials, RPI inflation is more likely to peak at between 6 to 9% in June. I am not sure after that.

Cuthbert

Simon Ward comments on MPC credibility damaged by unforeseen inflation spike

Simon Ward — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 12:47:37 +0000

I still expect rates to start rising in the spring as inflation, growth and housing market data continue to surprise on the upside. The MPC-ometer discussed in previous posts indicated that March was possible, depending on data flow - will update soon (after tomorrow's GDP report).

Andrew Oxlade comments on MPC credibility damaged by unforeseen inflation spike

Andrew Oxlade — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 10:49:08 +0000

Hi Simon,
Love the commentary. So do you still believe rates will rise in March?

Thanks
Andrew
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