Monetary news still weakening
A suggested further fall in global real money momentum strengthens conviction in a coming PMI decline. Continue reading
UK house prices: (much) more downside
A comparison with index-linked gilts suggests that house prices are as expensive as at the start of the crash phase of the last 18-year housing cycle. Continue reading
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Monetary trends suggest a peak in economic momentum and less liquidity support for markets. Continue reading
What explains the bond bear?
The recent rise in global government bond yields reflects a restrictive shift in global “excess” money conditions. Continue reading
Global money update: August weakness
Monetary trends may be starting to confirm a negative 2027 economic outlook suggested by cycle analysis. Continue reading
Cycle update: expected 2027 weakness crystallising
The short-term stockbuilding cycle is rolling over with the long-term housing cycle on track to accelerate into a 2027-28 low. Continue reading
Global money update: cooler despite US
Money trends suggest that global economic momentum is peaking in Q3, with downside risk focused on Europe and Japan. Continue reading
Eurozone money update: French weakness
Monetary trends continue to suggest coming economic disappointment. Continue reading
US money update: more strength
Monetary trends continue to suggest too-loose policy. Continue reading
Japanese money update: further weakness
Rising QT and f/x intervention are intensifying a monetary squeeze. Continue reading